The consequences of climate change

Isaac Asimov was one of the best science fiction writers of the 20th century. I highly recommend his books, even to people who do not like science fiction, because his stories always  make you feel that this is how it is really going to happen in the future. In one of his books the world is ruled by high-priests. They were the only ones that knew how to control nuclear energy and they would like to keep it that way, because everyone was depending on it.  Knowledge is power. During my working life in the development of MRI scanners I made the comparison with this world of Asimov and our world we live in. In a not so distant future nobody knows in detail how an MRI scanner works. I doubt whether the knowledgeable people that are left will become high priests. But I am sure that this technology will have a slower development than it deserves, because the number of people that knows how it works will decrease over time. What people have learned over the first 20 years after the invention of MRI will slowly fade away. This will also be the case for other inventions. The whole world is more or less happy, as long as everything works as it should work. At some point in time things might not work anymore...

Isaac Asimov wrote a series of books called The Foundation. That is the real reason I mention him here. A science called psychohistory is very important in those books. That science predicts what is going to happen in the future. Not with certainty but using the probabilities how a larger number of people will act and react. It is based on the fact that an individual might behave in a strange way, but that a large group of people is predictable. I do not want to go into detail here, just read his wonderful books, but I was thinking about it when I wrote blog number 2, about the 20 year time horizon of people. We are not able to plan for more than 20 years. Suppose psychohistory was a real science in our world. It would be a secret science, because as soon as you are able to predict the future and tell about the results, people might want to change that future you just predicted. So imagine that the psychohistorians are now gathering in a secret place and talk about their recent results. Here is their summary on climate change.

"There is a 97% chance that the goals to keep the temperature rise of the earth in this century below 2 degrees will not be met. We are not climate experts but our calculations show that the society is not capable of taking the needed measures, because of conflicting goals. However, they keep on trying and come up with new compromises. We calculated, there is a 10% chance of a worldwide conflict on climate change between 2040 and 2050, that depends on the individuals in power by that time. In the second half of the century there is prosperity on the Northern Hemisphere. The increase in temperature plus the increase in CO2 is good for the vegetation in the northern parts of Europe and Northern America. Entrepreneurial people will move up north, we calculate that about 5% of the current population of the US and Europe will move over 500 km in northern directions. Climate change is less of an issue, because people learned to live with it and use the new opportunities. In the mean time the more dry areas of the earth face tremendous difficulties, because of the drought. Because of the increased welfare in the north 82% of the people there is willing to spend considerably more tax on aid to the countries around the equator. Tornados in the Caribbean have destroyed almost everything on the islands, but they are completely rebuild with money from the north and serve as another source of income from tourists looking for the sun in summer but also from the popular tornado-tourists in other seasons. Flooding will be a major problem in southern US and to a lesser extent in Europe. Europe can cope with the rising sea level, at high expense, but has more problems with the increased water in the rivers. First the people will fight that, but that becomes too expensive and people leave those areas. More problems in the US, with the sea level in combination with the heavy winds. There is an almost 100% chance of a very large disaster in the southern states before 2060. This will lead to another flow up north of millions of people. Large parts in the south will permanently disappear in the sea. China is used to operate quickly and efficiently. They build new cities in better and safe places in a few years and the people are forced to move, in this way many lives are saved."

We go back to the Saxons in blog number 2. The one-liner in the history books: "Because of the attack of the Huns the Saxons moved to Brittanica. Many Saxons were killed in trying to fight the Huns."

The one-liner in the history book of 2150: "Because of the climate change in the 21th century Europeans and Americans moved to the north. Many people were killed because of the drought."

It is difficult to prepare for a plan B. My wife says that I always see bears on the road, even if they are not born yet. I always say that it is better to start an anticonception program for bears on the road. Temperatures will rise. Better prepare for the infrastructure needed.